Olivier Desbarres – Medium

Olivier Desbarres

Olivier Desbarres

Political data point to Macron winning French presidential election — question is by what margin

Five years ago we wrote a comprehensive four-part guide to the 2017 French Presidential (and legislative) elections. It allied a…

2 min readApr 1, 2022

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Political data point to Macron winning French presidential election — question is by what margin

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Olivier Desbarres

Market snapshot, theatre of war

Since the Russian army’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24th February most equity markets, government and corporate bond yields…

2 min readMar 8, 2022

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Market snapshot, theatre of war

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Olivier Desbarres

Fed hikes not immune from equity collapse

The Fed is widely expected to hike its policy rate 25bp to 0.25–0.50% (its first since December 2018) at its meeting on 16th March, by…

2 min readFeb 8, 2022

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Fed hikes not immune from equity collapse

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Olivier Desbarres

Japanese Yen — Myths and realities

The Yen depreciated about 13% versus the US Dollar between 5th January 2021 (a 9-month high) — and 4th January 2022 (a 4-year low) but has…

2 min readJan 28, 2022

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Japanese Yen — Myths and realities

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Olivier Desbarres

United Kingdom: Inflation without benefits

Consumer demand in the United Kingdom remains modest, which we attribute to a combination of factors. These include still curtailed…

2 min readJan 25, 2022

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United Kingdom: Inflation without benefits

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Olivier Desbarres

Light at the end of long Eurozone tunnel?

The number of new daily cases of Covid-19 has remained at or near record-highs in most Eurozone countries, including Germany, France, Italy…

2 min readJan 21, 2022

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Light at the end of long Eurozone tunnel?

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Olivier Desbarres

US: High inflation, rising yields, repeat

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release US CPI-inflation data for December today at 13.30 London time.

2 min readJan 12, 2022

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US: High inflation, rising yields, repeat

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Olivier Desbarres

2021’s last (major) roll of the data and policy dice

Markets’ focus has in the past three weeks understandably been on the Omicron variant and the reaction function, present and future, of…

2 min readDec 14, 2021

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2021’s last (major) roll of the data and policy dice

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Olivier Desbarres

Don’t forget Delta

Our last FIRMS report was entitled FX round-up — Calm before the next storm (18th November 2021) and less than a week later a storm hit…

2 min readDec 9, 2021

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Don’t forget Delta

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Olivier Desbarres

FX round-up — Calm before the next storm

The spike in US Treasury yield volatility last week, following the release of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, partly fed…

2 min readNov 18, 2021

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FX round-up — Calm before the next storm

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Olivier Desbarres

Olivier Desbarres

Olivier Desbarres is Founder of 4X Global Research, providing substantive research and analysis on Emerging and G20 economies and fixed income markets.

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