The spike in US Treasury yield volatility last week, following the release of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, partly fed through to other asset classes.

However, volatility in US asset prices, including Treasuries , the US Dollar and S&P 500, has since subsided while global FX volatility is still…

The release of record-busting US CPI-inflation data for October has seriously dented the Federal Reserve’s long-standing argument that high inflation will prove “transitory. What has proved transitory is the rally in short-end government bond yields in developed markets, in line with our expectations.

Volatile monthly inflation in the US and…

Following key central bank policy meetings last week in Australia, the US and UK, short-end interest rate markets have turned more dovish. We had argued back on 2nd November that “hawkish interest rate markets may have got slightly ahead of themselves.”

The Federal Reserve and certainly the RBA cooled market…

Our measure of global headline CPI-inflation rose further in September to 3.7% yoy but the 0.17pp increase was entirely due to the 0.27pp rise in CPI-inflation in developed economies to a 13-year high of about 3.9% yoy.

Headline CPI-inflation in EM economies was unchanged in September at about 3.3% yoy…

I will be speaking on the “Fixed Income and FX” panel at the (virtual) Global Independent Research Conference on 13th October at 12.30 (UK time). Click here for further details.

We turned bullish GBP/EUR in late-June and re-reiterated our constructive view in mid-July and early-August and the cross duly hit…

US macro data, including measures of US inflation, non-farm employment, retail sales, manufacturing output, ISM PMIs and consumer confidence indices, have been far less volatile since the peak in global risk aversion in March-April 2020 when the first national lockdowns decimated global growth.

However, volatility in most of these monthly…

In the past couple of months governments in Asia-Pacific have materially accelerated the administration of Covid-19 vaccines.

But because of low starting points, vaccination rates remain low compared to the EU, US and UK and even a number EM economies (including Turkey). …

Global FX volatility — as measured by the 5-day Standard Deviation (SD) in the daily percentage change in the spot (closing) price of a turnover-weighted basket of 32 major currency pairs against the US Dollar — remains depressed by historical standards.

While global FX volatility rose slightly on 11th August…

Olivier Desbarres

Olivier Desbarres is Founder of 4X Global Research, providing substantive research and analysis on Emerging and G20 economies and fixed income markets.

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