Consumer demand in the United Kingdom remains modest, which we attribute to a combination of factors. These include still curtailed opportunities to spend on goods (stock constraints) and services (social distancing restrictions), an erosion in real earnings, wealthy households’ low propensity to spend and a paradigm shift in spending habits.

The number of new daily cases of Covid-19 has remained at or near record-highs in most Eurozone countries, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and the number of deaths since 11th December has either risen materially from the previous corresponding period, albeit from low levels (France, Italy, Portugal and Spain)…

The spike in US Treasury yield volatility last week, following the release of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, partly fed through to other asset classes.

However, volatility in US asset prices, including Treasuries , the US Dollar and S&P 500, has since subsided while global FX volatility is still…

The release of record-busting US CPI-inflation data for October has seriously dented the Federal Reserve’s long-standing argument that high inflation will prove “transitory. What has proved transitory is the rally in short-end government bond yields in developed markets, in line with our expectations.

Volatile monthly inflation in the US and…

Following key central bank policy meetings last week in Australia, the US and UK, short-end interest rate markets have turned more dovish. We had argued back on 2nd November that “hawkish interest rate markets may have got slightly ahead of themselves.”

The Federal Reserve and certainly the RBA cooled market…

Our measure of global headline CPI-inflation rose further in September to 3.7% yoy but the 0.17pp increase was entirely due to the 0.27pp rise in CPI-inflation in developed economies to a 13-year high of about 3.9% yoy.

Headline CPI-inflation in EM economies was unchanged in September at about 3.3% yoy…

Olivier Desbarres

Olivier Desbarres is Founder of 4X Global Research, providing substantive research and analysis on Emerging and G20 economies and fixed income markets.

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